Antique Limited

Antique | GAIL 2QFY24 result update – 231101

Antique | GAIL 2QFY24 result update – 231101
GAIL 2QFY24 result update – 231101 (Please click here to view the report)

Strong show

GAIL’s 2QFY24 numbers were above our and consensus estimates. Reported EBITDA was INR 34.9 bn (+43% QoQ, +98% YoY) vs. our estimate of INR 27 bn and consensus of INR 25 bn. PAT was INR 24 bn (+70% QoQ, +57% YoY). The beat was driven by stronger than expected performance in the marketing and ‘others’ segment. The company has also given a strong guidance of INR 40 bn for FY25 marketing EBITDA and more than 130 mmscmd of transmission volume. While marketing has tailwinds and INR 40 bn is in line with our estimates, 130 mmscmd of gas transmission volume looks a bit aggressive to us. The petrochemicals segment continues to face challenges. Accordingly, we increase our FY24 EBITDA estimate by 19% to account for the strong quarter, while lower FY25 estimate by 3% to account for the delay in recovery in the petrochemicals segment. We value the company at INR 133/share (earlier INR 130/share) as we roll forward our estimates to 1HFY26. Maintain BUY with a target price of INR 133.

Investment Summary

We increase GAIL’s FY24 EBITDA estimate by 19% to incorporate the strong quarterly performance while lower the FY25 estimate by 3% to account for delayed petrochemicals recovery. GAIL’s pipeline business, from which GAIL derives the most value, has turned around successfully over the last year and marketing segment continues to witness a favorable commodity price environment. We remain positive on the company and maintain BUY with a target price of INR 133 (earlier INR 130), as we roll forward to 1HFY26.

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