Antique Limited

Antique | Nuvoco Vistas Corp 2QFY24 result update – 231101

Antique | Nuvoco Vistas Corp 2QFY24 result update – 231101
Nuvoco Vistas Corp 2QFY24 result update – 231101 (Please click here to view the report)

Higher costs dent margins; leverage restricts growth

Nuvoco Vistas’ (NUVOCO) 2Q EBITDA at INR 3.3 bn (up 72% YoY) was 6%/ 16% below consensus/ our estimates, mainly due to higher shutdown maintenance costs. Volume grew ~1% YoY and de-grew 11% QoQ to 4.45 MT. Cement realization increased 3% QoQ owing to sharp price hikes of >INR 40/bag effected in the East from Sep’23 (full impact to reflect in 3Q), while total costs/ton remained flat YoY/ increased ~5% QoQ. Accordingly, blended EBITDA/ton came in at INR 741/ton, up INR 304 YoY/ down INR 43 QoQ—lower than our estimate of INR 887/ton. Management expects demand to remain strong in FY24 with stable prices. We believe NUVOCO is likely to continue to straddle between growth and leverage over the next few years, given the relatively high net debt to EBITDA of ~2x. Factoring lower profitability, we decrease our FY25E EBITDA by 6%, thereby decreasing our target price to INR 390 (earlier INR 415) based on unchanged 9x 1HFY26E EV/EBITDA. Maintain HOLD. Key risks remain better demand/ pricing in the East.

Investment Summary

We factor 5% volume CAGR over FY23–26E and expect blended EBITDA/ton to improve from INR 644/ton in FY23 to INR 926 in FY26E led by lower fuel costs, better costs efficiencies, and higher realization. We maintain HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price of INR 390 (earlier INR 415) based on 9x 1HFY26E EV/EBITDA. The stock currently trades at 8x EV/EBITDA and ~USD 75 EV/ton based on 1HFY26 EBITDA estimates.

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