Antique Limited

Antique | IOCL 2QFY24 result update – 231102

Antique | IOCL 2QFY24 result update – 231102
IOCL 2QFY24 result update – 231102 (Please click here to view the report)

Retail fuel market share losses continue

Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOCL) 2QFY24 EBITDA at INR 212 bn (vs. INR 222 bn QoQ, INR 20 bn YoY), was above consensus of INR 173 bn but below our estimate of INR 233 bn. PAT of INR 130 bn (INR 137bn QoQ, INR -2bn YoY) was also above consensus of INR 103 bn but lower than our estimate of INR 147 bn. The miss on our numbers was on account of lower refining throughput. Despite being volatile, GRM YTD has been higher than expected. Consequently, we raise our FY24 EBITDA estimate by 3% to build in higher GRMs while keeping FY25 estimates largely unchanged. We also introduce FY26 estimates, a growth of 12% YoY driven by 25% refinery capacity addition. The stock remains attractively valued and is offering a dividend yield of 7.5%. We roll forward our valuation to 1HFY26 and maintain BUY rating with a revised SoTP target price of INR 128 (earlier INR 124), based on 5.0x EV/EBITDA.

Investment summary

Oil prices have started cooling off post the run-up recently on account of the Israel-Hamas war. We believe oil prices will retrace to the ~USD 80/bbl range in the near term as premium subsides. Refining remains robust and Russian crude discounts continue to support GRMs. LPG, though likely to slip into losses in November, remains a strong profit contributor due to healthy margins with the huge surplus in 1HFY24 compensating for any loss in the near term. The stock remains attractively valued at 4.0x 1HFY26 EV/EBITDA (adjusted for investments) and is offering a dividend yield of 7.5%. Reiterate BUY with a TP of INR 128 (vs. INR 124 earlier).

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