Antique Limited

Antique | Ambuja 2QFY24 result update – 231102

Antique | Ambuja 2QFY24 result update – 231102
Ambuja 2QFY24 result update – 231102 (Please click here to view the report)

Costs efficiencies drive profitability; newer capacities see delay

Ambuja Cements’ (ACEM) 2QFY24 standalone EBITDA at INR 7.7 bn was 4%–7% below our/ consensus estimates. Cost/ton declined 12% YoY/ increased ~2% QoQ whereas realization increased ~1% QoQ. Accordingly, standalone EBITDA/ton declined ~2% QoQ to INR 1,020 (Antique est.: INR 1,044). Consolidated volume grew only 2% YoY/ declined 15% QoQ (vs. industry growth of low double digits YoY). Consolidated EBITDA/ton declined 8% QoQ to INR 994—comparable with larger peers. Management expects profitability to improve further to INR 1,400–1,500 over the next 2–3 years through substantial cost savings (INR 400–500/ton) from Adani Group synergies, besides massive WHRS addition, significant logistic optimization, and improved cost efficiencies. With announced capacities seeing some delays, volume growth may be constrained in the near term. Factoring lower volumes/ profitability, we reduce our FY25E EBITDA by 6% and cut our target price to INR 505 (earlier INR 550) based on 14x 1HFY26E consolidated EV/EBITDA. Maintain BUY on attractive valuation of 11x 1HFY26E EV/EBITDA.

Investment Summary

We factor 10% volume CAGR over FY24–26E and expect consolidated EBITDA/ton to inch up from INR 742/ton in FY23 to INR 1,140 in FY24 and INR 1,213 by FY25E led by improved cost efficiencies. We maintain BUY rating on ACEM with a revised TP of INR 505 based on 14x consolidated 1HFY26 EV/EBITDA. ACEM currently trades at ~11x EV/EBITDA and at ~USD 135 EV/ton based on 1HFY26E consolidated EBITDA estimates.

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