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Antique | Gravita India 2QFY24 result update – 231102

Antique | Gravita India 2QFY24 result update – 231102
Gravita India 2QFY24 result update – 231102 (Please click here to view the report)

Steady volume growth momentum

Gravita India (Gravita) reported a strong operating performance delivering lead segment volume growth of 25% YoY. Key highlights are 1) Commodity price volatility and demand slowdown impacted volume growth in aluminum and plastic segments. Strong relationship with OEMs and hedging mechanism helped maintain volume growth for the lead segment. Guidance of +25% volume growth CAGR over FY23–27 maintained. 2) EBITDA margin stood at 8.7% (INR 16/kg). 3) INR 6 bn capex allocated to increase capacity in existing and new verticals on track. 1HFY24/ 2HFY24E outlay of INR 0.5/ 1.0 bn. Li-ion and paper recycling facility construction to commence by the end of FY24. 4) Net debt increased to INR 4.0 bn in 1HFY24 due to long term EUR 34 mn borrowing secured from PROPARCO and OeEB. We believe Gravita’s expansion plans coupled with regulatory tailwinds and the global focus on recycling can enable it to deliver volume/ revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT CAGR of 31%/ 23%/ 28%/ 24% over FY23–26. We broadly maintain our EPS estimates over FY24–26 and retain BUY rating with a TP of INR 1,250 based on 25x 1HFY26 EPS (five-year high/ avg./ low of 23x/ 8x/ 2x).

Investment Summary

We believe Gravita’s expansion plans coupled with the regulatory tailwinds and global focus on recycling can enable it to deliver revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT CAGR of 23%/ 28%/ 24% over FY23–26. Considering a steady customer base and leadership position in India in lead recycling, we maintain BUY rating and a TP of INR 1,250.

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